Forecast variance
A material variance between actuals and the latest forecast enters the FP&A decision queue.
Shows how a forecast variance turns into a governed, evidence-backed explanation as agents connect actuals, drivers, assumptions, and scenarios, draft the narrative and bridge, and route it for partner approval before the management pack updates — with replay and driver-accuracy learning.
A material variance between actuals and the latest forecast enters the FP&A decision queue.
Agents read actuals, prior forecast, driver trees, assumptions, and comparable scenarios.
Capital guardrails, scenario policy, and materiality determine whether the explanation needs partner approval.
Variance, driver-attribution, and narrative agents build the bridge and recommend the explanation with confidence.
Finance partner reviews the bridge and narrative and approves; the management pack is updated.
The explanation can be replayed to the actuals, drivers, and assumptions that produced it.
| Fact | Source | Proof |
|---|---|---|
| Actuals + forecast | GL / planning context | Period actuals, prior forecast, budget, and variance by driver. |
| Driver tree | Forecast intelligence runtime | Volume, price, mix, cost, and FX contributions to the variance. |
| Assumptions | Scenario library | Assumptions, scenario set, and comparable prior explanations. |
| Narrative basis | Policy + history | Materiality, guardrails, and accepted prior narratives. |
| Control | Visible proof |
|---|---|
| Policy evaluated | Capital guardrails, scenario policy, materiality threshold, and disclosure conditions. |
| Human gate | Finance partner approval required before the management pack or forecast narrative is updated. |
| Learning captured | Driver-attribution accuracy and accepted/rejected narratives feed forecast-driver learning. |
| Value attribution | Analyst effort avoided, cycle-time reduction, and forecast-accuracy improvement are attributed at case, driver, tower, and CFO levels. |
| SOR access | Actuals and driver facts read from the context/planning layer; no SOR write — the output is an approved explanation, not a posting. |