bp finance use case · planning + procurement + operations + finance lineage
Spend Intelligence
Business Problem
Budget owners often know the budget but not the full combination of actuals, open commitments, pending invoices,
and expected future consumption until overspend is already visible. This governed finance workspace exposes that
combined exposure early, calculates the forecast deterministically, and explains the drivers, evidence, supplier risk,
policy posture, and recommended human actions.
Deterministic forecast engine
LLM explains, does not calculate
Budget → PO → Invoice → JE → Forecast
Explainability runtime: Deterministic fallback
Live source systems: SAP actuals · Ariba commitments · Invoice processing · Planning Hub · Journal ledger
Data mode: live
Budget owner: Operations Manager A
Current period: Jun
Budget
$20.3M
Owner: Operations Manager A · Annual envelope
Explain this number -> Budget = $20.3M
BudgetPlanning Hub FY26
Contracts182 active contracts
POs4,281 open POs
Invoices1,942 pending invoices
Goods receipts873 unbilled receipts
Paymentslast 12 months
Forecast logicdeterministic projection v2.1
Confidence97%
Actual Spend
$14.5M
Posted costs from SAP actuals / budget line items
Explain this number -> Actual spend = $14.5M
BudgetPlanning Hub FY26
Contracts182 active contracts
POs4,281 open POs
Invoices1,942 pending invoices
Goods receipts873 unbilled receipts
Paymentslast 12 months
Forecast logicdeterministic projection v2.1
Confidence98%
Open Commitments
$4.5M
Open POs and contractual obligations from Ariba / commitments
Explain this number -> Open commitments = $4.5M
BudgetPlanning Hub FY26
Contracts182 active contracts
POs4,281 open POs
Invoices1,942 pending invoices
Goods receipts873 unbilled receipts
Paymentslast 12 months
Forecast logicdeterministic projection v2.1
Confidence96%
Pending Invoices
$106.5M
Received and approved invoices not yet fully realized
Explain this number -> Pending invoices = $106.5M
BudgetPlanning Hub FY26
Contracts182 active contracts
POs4,281 open POs
Invoices1,942 pending invoices
Goods receipts873 unbilled receipts
Paymentslast 12 months
Forecast logicdeterministic projection v2.1
Confidence94%
Projected YE Spend
$125.5M
Deterministic projection from actuals, commitments, invoices, and outlook
Explain this number -> Projected YE spend = $125.5M
BudgetPlanning Hub FY26
Contracts182 active contracts
POs4,281 open POs
Invoices1,942 pending invoices
Goods receipts873 unbilled receipts
Paymentslast 12 months
Forecast logicdeterministic projection v2.1
Confidence94%
Variance
518.2%
$105.2M vs approved budget
Explain this number -> Variance = 518.2%
BudgetPlanning Hub FY26
Contracts182 active contracts
POs4,281 open POs
Invoices1,942 pending invoices
Goods receipts873 unbilled receipts
Paymentslast 12 months
Forecast logicdeterministic projection v2.1
Confidence93%
Why the Forecast Changed
The forecast is not a magical AI number. It is an additive bridge across actuals, commitments, pending invoices, planned consumption, and approved savings.
| Driver | Impact | Evidence and logic |
|---|
| Current Actuals | +$8.1M | Posted spend from SAP actuals and cost-center ledger activity. |
| Open PO Commitments | +$2.3M | Approved POs and contractual commitments not yet invoiced. |
| Pending Invoices | +$1.1M | Received invoices and goods receipts awaiting final realization. |
| Planned Spend Increase | +$2.0M | Forecast consumption and known project demand from Planning Hub. |
| Savings Initiatives | -$0.5M | Validated savings already approved for realization. |
| Total Forecast | $14.6M | Deterministic projection v2.1; sum of drivers, not an AI guess. |
This invoice increases projected spend by $2.8M.
Expected year-end variance moves to 518.2%
once the lineage path fully clears into forecast.
Decision Drivers
Five actionable categories tell leaders where to intervene before spend hardens into close-cycle variance.
Budget Risk
$2.6M
Forecast exceeds annual budget after actuals, commitments, and pending invoices are combined.
Commitment Risk
18%
Spend is committed but not yet invoiced, so the ledger understates future exposure.
Supplier Risk
41%
Three critical suppliers drive category concentration and continuity exposure.
Contract Leakage
$1.2M
Spend sits outside preferred agreements or negotiated rates.
Policy Exceptions
47
Approval bypass and split-purchase patterns require review.
LLM Explanation Panel
Why?
Projected year-end spend is 125,484,893 against a budget of 20,300,000, driving a 518.2% variance.
The largest deterministic pressure comes from Maintenance with additional lift from Logistics.
| Primary drivers | Contribution | Why it matters |
|---|
| Maintenance | 42.6% | 2 POs · 100.0% contract coverage |
| Logistics | 24.8% | 2 POs · 57.0% contract coverage |
| Capex Equipment | 20.6% | 1 POs · 0.0% contract coverage |
| IT Services | 12.0% | 1 POs · 100.0% contract coverage |
Top contributing suppliers: Halliburton, Whiting Compressor Systems, Schlumberger.
Explainability runtime: Deterministic fallback · Agent: fpa_simulation_interpreter
· Prompt: finance.fpa_simulation_interpretation.v1
Savings Opportunity Pipeline
The savings number is split into evidence-backed opportunity sources so procurement can validate the claim.
| Opportunity source | Value | Evidence-backed rationale |
|---|
| Supplier consolidation | $1.2M | Three overlapping service suppliers can move to preferred framework agreements. |
| Demand aggregation | $0.9M | Fragmented category demand can be pooled before next sourcing event. |
| Contract leakage | $0.8M | Spend outside negotiated rates and preferred agreements. |
| Early payment discounts | $0.5M | Discount windows available where cash posture supports capture. |
| Price variance | $0.3M | Unit-rate drift against contract baseline. |
Supplier Risk Source Labels
Supplier risk is source-attributed so leaders can distinguish external risk intelligence from internal operational signals.
Dun and Bradstreetfed live · financial risk and legal entity watch
EcoVadisdaily refresh · sustainability and compliance posture
Riskmethodslive · operational disruption and supply-chain exposure
Internal supplier riskreal-time · bp performance, incidents, and payment behavior
News intelligenceBloomberg feed · adverse media and sanctions-adjacent signals
Named Agent Activity
Visible agent activity makes the page feel like a working decision system, not a static dashboard.
09:31
Spend Intelligence Agent reconciled actuals, commitments, invoices, and payment history.
94%
09:32
Forecast Agent rebuilt deterministic YE projection and generated the driver bridge.
94%
09:33
Contract Intelligence Agent identified leakage against preferred agreements.
91%
09:34
Supplier Risk Agent refreshed D&B, EcoVadis, Riskmethods, internal, and news signals.
89%
09:35
Policy Agent flagged approval bypass and split-purchase exceptions for human review.
92%
09:36
Savings Agent packaged $3.7M opportunity pipeline with evidence lineage.
90%
Resolution Chain
Every forecast concern moves through a governed chain from detection to explainability, human judgment, action, and learning.
DetectBudget exposure emerges before month-end because commitments and invoices are included.
ExplainForecast bridge shows the additive source of every dollar in the $14.6M projection.
DecideBudget owner reviews drivers, supplier risk, leakage, and policy exceptions.
ActLaunch sourcing event, approve exception, trigger supplier review, or freeze discretionary spend.
LearnOutcome and savings realization feed the next forecast and recommendation cycle.
Organizational Context
Business unit · Refining & ProductsSpend cluster is tied to the refining operations tower.
Function · Maintenance ProcurementOperational and procurement ownership are both explicit.
Cost center · CC-REF-221Budget, PO, invoice, and payment lineage resolves to the same center.
Profit center · PC-RP-44Impacted margin and business-unit posture are known.
Legal entity · BP Products North Sea LtdLegal entity and regional procurement scope are controlled.
Region · North Sea / UKRegional sourcing and supplier-risk posture apply.
Business owner · Refining Ops DirectorOperational owner is tied to the spend outcome.
Budget owner · Regional Maintenance ControllerForecast accountability is explicit.
Procurement owner · Category Lead - Maintenance ServicesNegotiation and sourcing action ownership is clear.
Contract owner · Regional Procurement ManagerContract renewal and compliance posture are governed.
Real-Time Spend Visibility
Current spend · $8.1MPosted actuals.
Committed spend · $2.3MOpen PO obligations.
Accrued spend · $1.1MExpected accrual and pending receipt posture.
Forecast spend · $14.6MDeterministic projection at year end.
Drill-down capability
Enterprise -> Business UnitBusiness Unit -> CategoryCategory -> SupplierSupplier -> Transaction
Open Commitments
Visibility into what has already been economically committed, even if the cash has not left and the invoice has not landed.
| Supplier | Spend | Share |
|---|
| Halliburton | $1.1M | 29.6% |
| Whiting Compressor Systems | $890K | 24.0% |
| Schlumberger | $740K | 19.9% |
| North Sea Digital Services | $520K | 14.0% |
| OceanFloor Subsea Services Ltd | $460K | 12.4% |
Budget Owner Alerts
Who should act, and why, before the overspend hardens into a month-end surprise.
| Owner | Variance | Alert |
|---|
| Operations Manager A | 25.0% | Drilling Program is running 25.0% above budget trajectory. |
| Maintenance Lead B | 11.0% | Maintenance is running 11.0% above budget trajectory. |
| Logistics Lead C | 8.0% | Logistics is running 8.0% above budget trajectory. |
Recommended Actions
Actionable finance and operations interventions, not just a forecast number.
| Action | Owner | Expected effect |
|---|
| Freeze non-critical releases | Operations Manager A | Reduce projected year-end variance before the next close cycle. |
| Rephase milestone commitments | Plant Controller | Shift non-essential spend out of the current budget year. |
| Escalate reforecast approval | Operations Manager A | Formalize revised outlook and accountability. |
Cost Center Risk Heatmap
Which areas are most likely to break budget if current burn, commitments, and invoice flow continue.
| Cost center | Risk | Projected YE |
|---|
| CC-DRILL-221 | high | 25.0% |
| CC-MAINT-118 | medium | 11.0% |
| CC-LOG-412 | medium | 8.0% |
| CC-OPS-017 | low | 2.0% |
Contract Intelligence
Spend linked to contract · 92%Most highlighted spend is tied to a governed contract or SOW.
Off-contract spend · $1.2MMaverick or non-contracted spend was identified for review.
Expired contract usage · 2 supplier lanesServices are still being bought under expiring or expired terms.
Savings commitments · $2.4M at riskNegotiated savings are leaking through contract-rate drift and fragmented demand.
Renewal intelligence · 3 renewal / renegotiation opportunitiesUpcoming expiration windows create negotiation leverage.
Supplier Intelligence
Supplier concentration · Top 3 suppliers = 41%High dependency on a small supplier set in the category.
Supplier performance · 2 underperforming suppliersService and invoice posture deteriorated in the current quarter.
Supplier risk · 1 sanctions-adjacent, 2 operational riskRisk posture is linked directly into spend prioritization.
Supplier opportunities · Consolidate 4 fragmented lanesRationalization and negotiation opportunities are visible.
Spend Anomaly Detection
Duplicate invoices · 3 detectedDuplicate-risk transactions are already linked to the spend trail.
Price variances · $640KRate drift versus contracted posture is visible.
Maverick spend · $1.2MUnauthorized or off-contract spend was identified.
Split purchases · 5 patternsApproval-threshold avoidance signals detected.
Budget Intelligence
Budget utilization · 87%Spend is approaching the control threshold early in the year.
Budget overrun risk · HighCurrent burn and commitments point to overspend without intervention.
Savings forecast · $2.1MNegotiation and demand actions can still improve the year-end outlook.
Budget pressure forecast · M+2 escalation windowWithout action, pressure hardens before the next formal review cycle.
Savings Intelligence
Negotiation opportunity · $1.3MRate and volume posture support immediate supplier negotiations.
Supplier consolidation · $0.6MFragmented lanes can be rationalized into fewer suppliers.
Demand reduction · $0.4MOperational demand shaping is available for low-value consumption.
Savings leakage · $0.5MPreviously negotiated savings are not fully realized.
Policy Intelligence
Approval policy · 2 bypass risksThreshold and approval-bypass behavior was detected.
Delegation & SoD · 1 potential violationApproval and requester separation needs review.
Procurement policy · Off-contract exceptionsMaverick spend and split purchase patterns are visible.
Corrective actions · Escalate, source, or freezePolicy rationale is explicit with next-step guidance.
Predictive Spend Intelligence
Spend forecast · $14.6M YEForecast is deterministic and evidence-backed.
Supplier forecast risk · Top supplier concentration riskConcentration increases resilience and pricing risk.
Contract risk · 3 expiring contractsRenewal posture threatens cost and compliance if ignored.
Demand management · 2 discretionary lanes to suppressDemand actions reduce forecast pressure.
Budget → PO → Invoice → JE → Forecast lineage explorer
This is the strongest proof point for bp. It shows that Sphere is not just automating transactions; it is continuously
understanding how operational commitments translate into financial impact and forecast risk.
Budget
$20.3M
Operations Manager A
PO Created
$1.1M
BP-SPEND-PO-001 · Halliburton
Invoice Received
$2.8M
INV-884209 · RECEIVED
JE Posted
$1.7M
BPJE-202605-0001-658
Forecast Updated
518.2%
$125.5M projected YE
Deterministic engine inputs: actuals, commitments, burn rate, open POs, pending invoices, and known outlook.
LLM role: explain the overspend, top suppliers, and accountable owners in business language.
What changed
Budget vs projected year-end variance is 518.2%.
Top supplier concentration currently sits with Halliburton, Whiting Compressor Systems, Schlumberger.
Lineage path remains Budget → PO → Invoice → JE → Forecast.
Human-in-the-Loop
Actions · Investigate anomaly · Approve exception · Launch sourcing event · Trigger supplier review · Escalate issueProcurement and finance leaders stay in control.
Learning loop · Outcomes and savings capturedRecommendation, savings, and exception outcomes feed continuous optimization.
Audit & Compliance Readiness
Spend audit package · Budget -> Contract -> PO -> Invoice -> PaymentEnd-to-end evidence package is reconstructable.
Compliance package · Approval and policy lineageFinancial controls and procurement compliance are exportable.
Traceability · Source-backed spend insightEvery savings or risk recommendation ties back to original records.
Named Agent Inventory
spend layerSpend Intelligence Agent · Evidence Discovery Agent · Budget Intelligence Agent
commercial layerContract Intelligence Agent · Supplier Intelligence Agent · Savings Intelligence Agent
governance layerPolicy Intelligence Agent · Assurance Agent
Runtime Operations
Spend Command Center
Enterprise spend visibleCategory spend visibleSupplier spend visibleSavings opportunities visibleRisk alerts visible
Monitoring
Budget alertsContract alertsSupplier risk alertsSpend anomaly alerts
Failure Handling
Missing evidence alertsData quality alertsSource system outages handledHuman takeover supported