FP&A Analyst Command Center
Variance Analysis · Driver Review · Reforecasting · Evidence
SOR Data18 Jul 2026 22:55 UTC·Fabric registered·Sources: registered fabric·85 SORs·Recon: Active·Canonical Model
Route: /ui/mission/fpaMission: fpaRole: operatorData: LIVE FABRIC (registered fabric)Audit Mode: OFFDecision Access: Page → Queue Drawer → Case Drawer → Evidence / Execution
Pilot · seeded
Forecast accuracy
illustrative
82%
→
94%
$12.0M
90% confidence
Driver-based forecasting + variance copilot
▶ 📊 Financial Summary
Financial Summary — Feb 2026
LIVE
Scenario: Actual vs Budget
Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 3/4 SOR Live
Policy: FP&A-P-07
✓ Reconciled 100%
MTD Actual vs Budget
QTD Forecast vs Plan
FY Projection vs Target
Revenue
$16,120M
$680M lower vs Budget
↓ Unfavorable (-4.0%)
Gross Profit
$4,700M
$400M lower vs Budget
↓ Unfavorable (-7.8%)
EBITDA
$2,550M
$440M lower vs Budget
↓ Unfavorable (-14.7%)
Free Cash Flow
$1,310M
$470M lower vs Budget
↓ Unfavorable (-26.4%)
Capex
($1,240M)
$30M lower vs Budget
↓ Unfavorable (-2.5%)
Net Margin
15.8%
2.0pp lower vs Budget
↓ Unfavorable (-2.0pp)
Current Month
Year-to-Date
| Metric | Actual | Budget | Forecast | Var vs Budget | Var vs Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16,120M | $16,800M | $16,540M | $680M lower (Unfavorable) | $420M lower (Unfavorable) |
| COGS | ($11,420M) | ($11,700M) | ($11,580M) | $280M higher (Favorable) | $160M higher (Favorable) |
| COGS % of Revenue | 70.8% | 69.6% | 70.0% | 1.2pp higher (Unfavorable) | 0.8pp higher (Unfavorable) |
| Gross Profit (% of Revenue) | 29.2% | 30.4% | 30.0% | 1.2pp lower (Unfavorable) | 0.8pp lower (Unfavorable) |
| Gross Profit | $4,700M | $5,100M | $4,960M | $400M lower (Unfavorable) | $260M lower (Unfavorable) |
| OpEx | ($2,150M) | ($2,110M) | ($2,080M) | $40M lower (Unfavorable) | $70M lower (Unfavorable) |
| EBITDA | $2,550M | $2,990M | $2,880M | $440M lower (Unfavorable) | $330M lower (Unfavorable) |
| Capex | ($1,240M) | ($1,210M) | ($1,180M) | $30M lower (Unfavorable) | $60M lower (Unfavorable) |
| Free Cash Flow | $1,310M | $1,780M | $1,700M | $470M lower (Unfavorable) | $390M lower (Unfavorable) |
| Metric | Actual | Budget | Forecast | Var vs Budget | Var vs Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32,240M | $33,600M | $33,080M | $1,360M lower (Unfavorable) | $840M lower (Unfavorable) |
| COGS | ($22,840M) | ($23,400M) | ($23,160M) | $560M higher (Favorable) | $320M higher (Favorable) |
| COGS % of Revenue | 70.8% | 69.6% | 70.0% | 1.2pp higher (Unfavorable) | 0.8pp higher (Unfavorable) |
| Gross Profit (% of Revenue) | 29.2% | 30.4% | 30.0% | 1.2pp lower (Unfavorable) | 0.8pp lower (Unfavorable) |
| Gross Profit | $9,400M | $10,200M | $9,920M | $800M lower (Unfavorable) | $520M lower (Unfavorable) |
| OpEx | ($4,300M) | ($4,220M) | ($4,160M) | $80M lower (Unfavorable) | $140M lower (Unfavorable) |
| EBITDA | $5,100M | $5,980M | $5,760M | $880M lower (Unfavorable) | $660M lower (Unfavorable) |
| Capex | ($2,480M) | ($2,420M) | ($2,360M) | $60M lower (Unfavorable) | $120M lower (Unfavorable) |
| Free Cash Flow | $2,620M | $3,560M | $3,400M | $940M lower (Unfavorable) | $780M lower (Unfavorable) |
Total Revenue Variance vs Budget:
$680M
lower (Unfavorable)
Volume: $300MPrice: $260MFX: $95MTrading: +$70MOne-time: $95M
Structural: 94%
Temporary: 6%
Confidence: 94%
Variance (Forecast − Budget)
−$440M
Actual Variance (Actual − Budget)
−$440M
Forecast Delta (New Forecast − Prior)
−$330M
⚠
Budget Recalibration Recommended
EBITDA deviation of -14.7% exceeds the
7% materiality threshold (Policy FP&A-P-07).
FCF variance at -26.4%.
Agent recommends mid-cycle budget rebase for OpEx and Capex lines.
Root cause: unplanned turnaround at Whiting refinery + Brent differential narrowing by $2/bbl.
▶ 🧠 Runtime KPI Lens
FP&A Analyst KPIs
Net Operating Variance DB
ADVISORY
🟢 −$440M
EBITDA — MTD · -14.7% vs Budget
−$880M
-14.7% YTD
Forecast Accuracy DB
ASSISTED
🟠 96.2%
Rolling 3-Month · Bias: Under (-1.1pp)
-1.1pp
Declining vs control target
Cash Flow at Risk DB
GOVERNED
🔴 −$470M
Operating Cash + WC · WC Impact: +$179M
DSO +3d / DPO -2d
DIO +1d
Forecast Risk Exposure DB
ASSISTED
🟠 7 signals
Risk Signals · 4 volatile lines · top risk: Top variance account
1 guardrail breach
Scenario pressure watch
Agent Activity
VarianceAnalysisAgent closed 18 variancesForecastAdjustmentAgent prepared 4 revisionsRiskDetectionAgent flagged 7 anomaliesSystem confidence 91%
▶ 📉 Variance Intelligence
🧠 Understand the Facts — Variance Intelligence
MTD
✔ RECONCILED TO FINANCIAL SUMMARY
Drill: L1 → L2 → L3 → L4
⚠ REFERENCE FIXTURE — NOT LIVE DATA. Variance rows below are a static reconciliation fixture (matches the disclosed FY2025 segment spread). They are NOT produced by a live agent; per-row "agent" attribution is null. Wire
iaf-variance-decomposition-agent against iaf_agent_executions to replace this panel.
🔗 Linked to Financial Summary
✔ 100% Allocated
Policy: FP&A-P-07
EBITDA Variance (MTD, Actual vs Budget)
−$440M
Budget $2,990M → Actual $2,550M (-14.7%)
Revenue Variance (MTD, Actual vs Budget)
−$680M
Budget $16,800M → Actual $16,120M (-4.0%)
EBITDA Driver Decomposition — −$440M
Budget EBITDA
$2,990M
FX Translation
-95M
Volume / Production
-180M
Price / Mix
-110M
Cost Overrun
-85M
One-time / Timing
+30M
Actual EBITDA
$2,550M
The revenue segment breakdown below decomposes the −$680M revenue variance. All variance analysis references the reconciled Financial Summary.
Explaining MTD revenue variance vs Budget — Net: $680M lower (Unfavorable)
Top 3 Revenue Variance Drivers (MTD)
Oil Production & Operations
$390M lower
Unfavorable
Gas & Low Carbon Energy
$240M lower
Unfavorable
Customers & Products
$90M lower
Unfavorable
Remaining: +$40M
(Trading & Shipping: +$70M · Other Businesses: −$30M)
Top 3 Coverage: 106%
Revenue Variance:
−$680M
✔ Reconciled
$390M lower vs Budget (Unfavorable)" data-forecast-var="$290M lower vs Forecast (Unfavorable)">
Oil Production & Operations
Unfavorable
Actual: $5,490M
Budget: $5,880M
Forecast: $5,780M
$390M lower vs Budget (Unfavorable)
reference dataset
Revenue down $390M vs budget due to unplanned turnaround at Whiting refinery (-$150M) and Brent differential narrowing by $2/bbl (-$120M). Production shortfall of ~60kboe/d in Gulf of Mexico. North Sea maintenance extended 8 days beyond plan (-$80M). Corporate recharges (-$40M).
Structural: 88% · Temporary: 6% · reference confidence: 94%
$240M lower vs Budget (Unfavorable)" data-forecast-var="$160M lower vs Forecast (Unfavorable)">
Gas & Low Carbon Energy
Unfavorable
Actual: $4,380M
Budget: $4,620M
Forecast: $4,540M
$240M lower vs Budget (Unfavorable)
reference dataset
European gas prices softened after initial spike; LNG spot underperformed budget by $120M. Henry Hub weaker than plan at $3.2/MMBtu vs $3.5 budget. Pipeline gas volumes down 4% on milder European winter. Partially offset by hedge book gains (+$30M within policy).
Structural: 85% · Temporary: 6% · reference confidence: 91%
$90M lower vs Budget (Unfavorable)" data-forecast-var="$40M lower vs Forecast (Unfavorable)">
Customers & Products
Unfavorable
Actual: $4,110M
Budget: $4,200M
Forecast: $4,150M
$90M lower vs Budget (Unfavorable)
reference dataset
Refining margin compression as Asian overcapacity reached market. Crack spread at $12.3/bbl vs planned $14.8/bbl. Cherry Point performed near plan; Rotterdam and Singapore below. Structural shift flagged for reforecast.
Structural: 81% · Temporary: 6% · reference confidence: 87%
$70M higher vs Budget (Favorable)" data-forecast-var="$90M higher vs Forecast (Favorable)">
Trading & Shipping
Favorable
Actual: $1,750M
Budget: $1,680M
Forecast: $1,660M
$70M higher vs Budget (Favorable)
reference dataset
Benefited from European gas volatility and wider Brent-Dubai spread. Physical trading margins up $0.20/bbl vs plan. Shipping rates firmed in Atlantic basin. Partially offset by lower storage arbitrage as contango narrowed.
Structural: 84% · Temporary: 6% · reference confidence: 90%
$30M lower vs Budget (Unfavorable)" data-forecast-var="$20M lower vs Forecast (Unfavorable)">
Other Businesses
Unfavorable
Actual: $390M
Budget: $420M
Forecast: $410M
$30M lower vs Budget (Unfavorable)
reference dataset
FX translation on GBP-denominated central costs (-$20M) and lower recharges (-$10M). Partially offset by lower legal provisions.
Structural: 86% · Temporary: 6% · reference confidence: 92%
Net Variance vs Budget
$680M lower (Unfavorable)
Analysis: Causal Attribution v2.4
Model: Driver-Based Decomposition
Sources: SAP S/4 · Planning Hub · Market Data
Policy: FP&A-VAR-v3.1
▶ 🧩 Revenue Segment Lens
Revenue by SegmentBP SEGMENTS
Gas & Low Carbon Energy-240M (-5.2%)
Budget: $4,620MActual: $4,380M
Oil Production & Operations-390M (-6.6%)
Budget: $5,880MActual: $5,490M
Customers & Products-90M (-2.1%)
Budget: $4,200MActual: $4,110M
Trading & Shipping+70M (+4.2%)
Budget: $1,680MActual: $1,750M
Other Businesses-30M (-7.1%)
Budget: $420MActual: $390M
Period: Feb 2026Source: SAP S/4 + Planning HubAligned to BP Annual Report segment taxonomy
▶ 🧪 Scenario Workbench
SIMULATION
🎯 Governed Scenario Run Engine
INTERACTIVE
DRIVER-BASED MODEL v2.0
GOVERNED
HYBRID
Governed Scenario Run Engine
A slider is only the assumption input. bp Sphere scopes each run to disclosed truth, mapped SOR
coverage, policy checks, agent evaluation, and replayable evidence.
Unsupported assumptions are blocked, not guessed.
Baseline
Disclosure + SOR coverage
Evidence Mode
Replayable pack
Autonomy
Policy-bounded
Scenario Execution Chain
Step 1
Assumption
Step 2
Covered SOR Scope
Step 3
Agent Evaluation
Step 4
Policy Check
Step 5
KPI Impact
Step 6
Evidence Pack
Scenario Run Receipt
Run state
pending user run
pending user run
Planning horizon
FY2025
FY2025
Baseline source
HYBRID · 2026-06-02T14:55:06.872157
HYBRID · 2026-06-02T14:55:06.872157
Replay
available after save
available after save
Agents Fired:
Scenario Consistency, Revenue Intelligence, Cash Flow at Risk, Plan Governance, Evidence Agent.
Scenario Capability Status
Oil / gas price shockExecutable
Working capital delayExecutable
Revenue optimization upliftExecutable via market + contract + logistics feeds
Production volume changeExecutable via production SOR events
Capability contract API:
/api/iaf/fpa/scenario/capabilities
Macro & Commodity Drivers
P&L Drivers (Volume × Price)
Working Capital Drivers
Stress Test Templates
Middle East Disruption
Oil, freight, insurance, and production stress hit simultane
Commodity -12%
12% commodity price drop across portfolio
Recession
Global contraction — demand + WC stress
FX Shock
EUR/USD drops to 0.92 — strong dollar
WC Crunch
DSO blowout + DPO compression + inventory build
Liquidity Crisis
Oil crash + WC stress + capex freeze
Live Impact Projection
Metric
Projected
Actual
Net Impact
Revenue
$198.4B
$198.4B
+0.0
COGS
$140.0B
$140.0B
+0.0
OpEx
$0.0B
$0.0B
+0.0
EBITDA
$33.1B
$33.1B
+0.0
Interest
$0.8B
$0.8B
+0.0
Free Cash Flow
$17.8B
$17.8B
+0.0
Net Debt
$24.2B
$24.2B
+0.0
Working Capital
$9.7B
$9.7B
+0.0
CCC
11.0d
11.0d
+0.0
Liquidity
14.2mo
14.2mo
+0.0
Gearing
19.7%
19.7%
+0.0
Div Cover
2.3x
2.3x
+0.0
Policy Guardrails (Enforcing)
Gearing <20% - PASS
FCF Floor $15B - PASS
Debt/EBITDA <2.5x - PASS
Dividend Cover >1.3x - PASS
Liquidity >3mo - PASS
OpEx Cut ≤15% - PASS
Capex Defer ≤40% - PASS
All metrics within baseline tolerance. Simulation anchored to HYBRID baseline provenance: 2026-06-02T14:55:06.872157.
Ready to run a governed scenario using the hybrid scenario engine.
Impact Propagation
Brent
$75.0/bbl
→
Revenue
$198.4B
→
EBITDA
$33.1B
→
FCF
$17.75B
→
Net Debt
$24.2B
→
Covenant Buffer
0.3%
Governed Monte Carlo Risk Analysis
10,000 SIMULATIONS
SEEDED + REPLAYABLE
Distribution Contract
Monte Carlo is not a black box. Each run uses a deterministic seed, bounded driver
distributions, source-labelled inputs, and policy limits. Same seed + same inputs =
reproducible percentile outputs.
DriversBrent, gas, FX, carbon, production, capex, hedge
BoundariesScenarioInput validation ranges
ExecutionDeterministic seeded draws
Evidence Receipt
Results are returned with input, output, and evidence hashes so the run can be defended and replayed.
Run IDpending run
Seed42
Replayavailable after run
EBITDA Distribution (10,000 simulations × 40 bins)
--
EBITDA ($B)
--
| Metric | P5 | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 | P95 | Mean |
|---|
Simulation Log
AUDIT TRAIL
0 runs
Model: Driver-Based P&L + Sensitivity v2.0
Baseline: FPA-LIVE-SOR-Jun-4d0cd595ba (HYBRID)
Sources: Planning Hub · SAP S/4 · FX Feed · Treasury SOR
Evidence: —
Policy: FP&A-GOV-v3.2
🌳 Scenario Tree — EBITDA Range by Stress Path
6 SCENARIOS
Base Case
$33.1B
45% prob
Scenario
Prob
P10
P50
P90
P50 EBITDA
Oil Shock ($45)
15%
$28.4B
Commodity -12%
12%
$30.2B
Recession
10%
$27.2B
FX Shock
8%
$31.5B
WC Crunch
5%
$31.0B
Liquidity Crisis
5%
$24.8B
P10 Worst: $20.1B (Liquidity Crisis)
P50 Weighted: $29.2B
P90 Best: $32.8B (FX Shock)
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