Strategic Transition Intelligence
Carbon & Sustainability Intelligence
Continuously connect carbon price, emissions, sustainability performance, transition risk, assets, and capital decisions.
Core decision question
How do carbon exposure, emissions, and transition risk change enterprise decisions?
Every signal, context package, evidence pack, policy result, recommendation, human approval, action, replay, and learning artifact should serve this question.
North Star KPIs
Carbon exposure visibilityTransition risk reductionEmissions forecast accuracyCapital transition alignmentSustainability performanceAgent workforce
Carbon Intelligence AgentEmissions Forecast AgentTransition Risk AgentSustainability Performance AgentCarbon Scenario AgentEnterprise integrations
Carbon systemsProduction systemsAsset systemsTrading systemsSAP S/4HANAMarket feedsDatabricksFuture UDPMonitored domains
Carbon exposureCarbon pricingEmissions forecastingSustainability performanceTransition riskLow-carbon investmentsReference signal ticker
Signal visibility must be more than the word signal. Each mission shows reference signal counts, severity, scenario REF-TICK ID, and current blocked/recommended state. These are scenario proof shapes until connected to live traversal.
Reference signal generated from the scenario library; REF-TICK IDs show the expected production trace shape and are not attested live events.
3535 reference signals / scenario
66 transition-risk movements
ScenarioScenario event REF-TICK-12044 at 14:10
$140M$140M carbon exposure shift
Reference signals and recommended responses
| Signal | Source | Impact | Recommended response |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carbon price increased | Carbon market feed | $140M exposure shift | Run portfolio impact |
| Emissions forecast worsened | Asset system | Target variance risk | Recommend mitigation |
| Transition scenario changed | Scenario feed | Portfolio risk shift | Re-rank investments |
Demo sequence
- Carbon cost increases
- Asset and portfolio impact recalculates
- Transition risk changes
- Capital decisions re-ranked
- Evidence and scenario replay generated
Source-system traceability for major numbers
Every major value is tied to a source system, API object, data product, or source transaction. This answers where the number came from before BP asks.
Context pack: business unit: Group Finance · cost center: CC-1042 · entity code: BP-GROUP · owner: mission runtime.
| Number / metric | Source system or data product | Record / API object | Business context |
|---|---|---|---|
| $140M exposure shift | Reference carbon market feed + asset model | scenario_carbon_event=REF-TICK-12044 | Owner: Sustainability Finance |
| Target variance risk | Asset emissions system | asset=EMISS-NS-440 | Policy: Carbon target |
| Investment ranking shift | Scenario engine + capital model | scenario=TRANS-LOW-18 | Owner: Strategy |
Evidence, policy, replay, learning, and action artifacts
Decision memory
| Runtime artifact | Identifier | Credibility proof |
|---|---|---|
| Evidence pack | EP-CARB-12044 | data-evidence="pack" · source records and supporting documents |
| Policy ID | FIN-CARB-2026-06 | Policy runtime gate evaluated before recommendation |
| Replay ID | REPLAY-CARB-12044 | Replay available from signal through human judgment and action |
| Learning | patterns learned: 2 | Decision memory updates after accepted/rejected outcome |
| Action payload | Carbon scenario approval workflow | Next action: governed execution after approval limit $500K and human override check |
Alternative actions table
Alternative actions table. This is the concrete recommendation surface: bp Sphere shows what it recommends, what it rejected, the expected value, the risk, and the action path.
| Alternative action | Confidence | Expected value / impact | Risk / tradeoff | Action path |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Re-rank low-carbon investment | 82% | +0.2 transition score | Capital tradeoff | Strategy review |
| Mitigate emissions variance | 85% | $24M cost avoided | Operational dependency | Asset action |
| Update carbon price assumption | 91% | $140M exposure governed | Forecast sensitivity | FP&A approval |
Runtime injection console
Use these controls during the workshop to show the mission changing state. Injection creates a named runtime event, updates mission KPI/readiness, adds a replay row, and opens the trace from signal to learning.
Mission KPI
Carbon exposure visibility
Awaiting scenario injection.
Mission readiness
Baseline
No injected blockers or opportunities yet.
Latest replay event
None
Click an injection below to create a replayable runtime event.
| Time | Event | Scenario | Decision impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| --:--:-- | Waiting | No scenario injected | No mission state change |
Decision portfolio
| Decision | Impact | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Re-rank low-carbon investment | +0.2 transition score | Strategy Lead | Recommended |
| Mitigate asset emissions variance | $24M cost avoided | Asset Lead | Draft action |
| Update carbon price assumption | $140M exposure | FP&A Lead | Governed |
Vertical operating-model audit
This validates that the mission is useful from frontline work through enterprise steering: Agent Runtime → Analyst → Supervisor → Function Leader/Controller → FB&T Leader → CFO.
| Role layer | What this layer can do | Executive credibility proof |
|---|---|---|
| Agent Runtime | Carbon, emissions forecast, transition risk, sustainability, and carbon scenario agents monitor transition impact. | Carbon trace with asset, emissions, carbon price, policy, and capital effect. |
| Analyst | Review emissions, carbon price, and asset-level signals. | Can explain why carbon exposure changed. |
| Supervisor | Monitor sustainability actions and evidence gaps. | Can manage unresolved carbon-risk work. |
| Function Leader / Sustainability Lead | Optimize transition-risk response and sustainability performance. | Can compare asset and portfolio exposure. |
| FB&T Leader | Understand carbon impact on finance missions, capital, and performance. | Can orchestrate transition tradeoffs. |
| CFO | Steer carbon, cash, earnings, risk, and capital tradeoffs. | Can defend strategic transition decisions. |
Executive credibility scenarios
These are the scenarios BP can challenge live. The mission must show signal, context, evidence, policy, decision, action, replay, learning, and enterprise impact for each.
| Scenario | Inject | Expected runtime proof | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carbon price increase | Carbon market price rises | Asset, portfolio, capital, and transition impact update. | |
| Emissions forecast worsens | Asset emissions variance | Target risk, mitigation actions, and evidence are visible. | |
| Transition scenario changes | Transition risk model changes | Investment ranking and board scenario update. |
12+ dimension BP credibility audit
| Dimension | Visible proof requirement | This mission's answer |
|---|---|---|
| Signal | Business event or market movement is visible and linked to a mission decision. | Carbon price increased · Scenario event REF-TICK-12044 at 14:10 |
| Context | Entity, business unit, owner, system object, policy domain, and history are resolved. | Resolved through enterprise context graph: owner, system object, business unit, history, and policy domain. |
| Evidence | Source records, documents, approvals, and source-system snapshots are inspectable. | Evidence pack includes source system record, curated data snapshot, policy reference, and supporting document where applicable. |
| Policy | Authority, control, risk, accounting, tax, treasury, or investment policies are referenced. | Policy/runtime gate is evaluated before recommendation or action. |
| Decision | The mission produces a named decision object, not just a metric or chart. | Re-rank low-carbon investment |
| Recommendation | Recommended response and alternatives are shown with impact. | Re-rank low-carbon investment · confidence 82% · impact +0.2 transition score |
| Human Override | Human approval, rejection, override, or escalation path is explicit. | Approval, rejection, override reason, and escalation owner are retained in replay. |
| Action | Action payload is traceable to workflow, system update, notification, hold, hedge, or approval. | Recommended |
| Replay | Event, context, evidence, policy, recommendation, human judgment, action, and outcome can be replayed. | Replay captures signal, context, evidence, policy, agent output, human judgment, action, outcome, and learning. |
| Learning | Accepted/rejected outcomes are captured as future pattern memory. | Outcome becomes pattern memory after human decision and realized impact are known. |
| Business Impact | Financial, risk, cash, control, or value impact is quantified. | +0.2 transition score |
| Enterprise Integration | Systems of record, data products, APIs, and future UDP context layer are named. | Carbon systems · Production systems · Asset systems · Trading systems · example: Reference carbon market feed + asset model |
| Source Drill-down | Users can drill from decision to source transaction, document, or curated data product. | Source drill-down points to SOR/API record, Databricks/UDP data product, document, or market feed behind the decision. |
| Confidence | The decision carries confidence and uncertainty drivers. | Confidence is shown in decision formation and decomposed into data freshness, evidence completeness, policy clarity, and model uncertainty. |
| Alternatives | At least two alternative actions or scenarios are available. | Re-rank low-carbon investment | Mitigate emissions variance | Update carbon price assumption |
| Audit Trail | Every material step is retained with timestamp, actor/agent, evidence, and policy result. | Timestamped audit trail spans agent, human, policy, evidence, and action events. |
| Executive Narrative | The mission can produce an executive answer: what happened, why, what to do, and expected outcome. | Narrative answers what happened, why, recommended action, value, risk, and next owner. |
| Mission KPI | A mission-level KPI changes when the scenario changes. | Carbon exposure visibility |
| Readiness | Readiness or confidence updates when blockers, policies, or evidence status change. | Mission readiness/confidence updates when signals, evidence, policies, or blockers change. |
| Enterprise Impact | The mission shows enterprise-level consequence beyond one transaction. | How do carbon exposure, emissions, and transition risk change enterprise decisions? |
Runtime architecture
SignalBusiness event, market movement, policy breach, or performance variance.
ContextEntity, asset, customer, project, policy, historical pattern, and owner resolution.
Evidence + PolicySource records, documents, controls, authority, and data-quality checks.
Decision + ActionAlternatives, confidence, financial impact, owner, action payload, and approval path.
Replay + LearningFull trace, outcome, accepted/rejected recommendation, and pattern memory.