Strategic Intelligence
Capital Allocation Intelligence
Transform capital allocation from periodic planning into continuously optimized investment decision intelligence.
Core decision question
Where should the next dollar be invested?
Every signal, context package, evidence pack, policy result, recommendation, human approval, action, replay, and learning artifact should serve this question.
North Star KPIs
Capital productivityROACE improvementInvestment cycle timePortfolio value creationAgent workforce
Capital Intelligence AgentInvestment Evaluation AgentNPV Intelligence AgentRisk Intelligence AgentPortfolio Optimization AgentScenario Intelligence AgentEnterprise integrations
SAP S/4HANAProject systemsCapital project managementProduction systemsTrading systemsTreasury systemsDatabricksFuture UDP context layerMonitored domains
NPVIRRPaybackCommodity sensitivityCarbon impactPortfolio optimizationCapital prioritizationCapital constraintsReference signal ticker
Signal visibility must be more than the word signal. Each mission shows reference signal counts, severity, scenario REF-TICK ID, and current blocked/recommended state. These are scenario proof shapes until connected to live traversal.
Reference signal generated from the scenario library; REF-TICK IDs show the expected production trace shape and are not attested live events.
2424 reference signals / scenario
55 capital ranking changes
ScenarioScenario event REF-TICK-50934 at 14:16
$1.4B$1.4B capital under review
Reference signals and recommended responses
| Signal | Source | Impact | Recommended response |
|---|---|---|---|
| Project economics changed | Project system + commodity feed | NPV -$240M | Re-rank funding priority |
| Capital constraint tightened | Treasury forecast | $500M allocation gap | Recommend portfolio rebalance |
| Carbon cost scenario increased | Carbon market feed | Low-carbon option improves rank | Run transition scenario |
Demo sequence
- Capital project submitted
- NPV calculated
- Risks evaluated
- Alternatives compared
- Scenarios simulated
- Investment recommendation generated with evidence
Source-system traceability for major numbers
Every major value is tied to a source system, API object, data product, or source transaction. This answers where the number came from before BP asks.
Context pack: business unit: Group Finance · cost center: CC-1042 · entity code: BP-GROUP · owner: mission runtime.
| Number / metric | Source system or data product | Record / API object | Business context |
|---|---|---|---|
| NPV -$240M | Reference capital model + project-system shape | scenario_investment_case=REF-CAP-NS-884 | Business unit: Gas & Low Carbon |
| $500M allocation gap | Treasury forecast + capital envelope | capital_cycle=CAP-2026-Q3 | Owner: CFO Office |
| Carbon scenario | Carbon market feed + portfolio model | scenario=CARB-HIGH-44 | Steward: Strategy |
Evidence, policy, replay, learning, and action artifacts
Decision memory
| Runtime artifact | Identifier | Credibility proof |
|---|---|---|
| Evidence pack | EP-CAP-50934 | data-evidence="pack" · source records and supporting documents |
| Policy ID | FIN-CAP-2026-11 | Policy runtime gate evaluated before recommendation |
| Replay ID | REPLAY-CAP-50934 | Replay available from signal through human judgment and action |
| Learning | patterns learned: 3 | Decision memory updates after accepted/rejected outcome |
| Action payload | Capital committee action | Next action: governed execution after approval limit $500K and human override check |
Alternative actions table
Alternative actions table. This is the concrete recommendation surface: bp Sphere shows what it recommends, what it rejected, the expected value, the risk, and the action path.
| Alternative action | Confidence | Expected value / impact | Risk / tradeoff | Action path |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reallocate $500M to Gas & Low Carbon | 86% | +0.18 ROIC | Execution risk | CFO approval |
| Defer lower-return retail capex | 81% | +$260M liquidity | Growth delay | Capital committee |
| Approve LNG expansion gate | 89% | +$344M annual profit | Commodity sensitivity | Investment committee |
Runtime injection console
Use these controls during the workshop to show the mission changing state. Injection creates a named runtime event, updates mission KPI/readiness, adds a replay row, and opens the trace from signal to learning.
Mission KPI
Capital productivity
Awaiting scenario injection.
Mission readiness
Baseline
No injected blockers or opportunities yet.
Latest replay event
None
Click an injection below to create a replayable runtime event.
| Time | Event | Scenario | Decision impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| --:--:-- | Waiting | No scenario injected | No mission state change |
Decision portfolio
| Decision | Impact | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reallocate $500M to Gas & Low Carbon | +0.18 ROIC | CFO | Awaiting decision |
| Defer lower-return retail capex | +$260M liquidity | Capital Committee | Recommended |
| Approve LNG expansion gate | +$344M annual profit | Investment Committee | Evidence ready |
Vertical operating-model audit
This validates that the mission is useful from frontline work through enterprise steering: Agent Runtime → Analyst → Supervisor → Function Leader/Controller → FB&T Leader → CFO.
| Role layer | What this layer can do | Executive credibility proof |
|---|---|---|
| Agent Runtime | Capital, investment, NPV, risk, portfolio optimization, and scenario agents evaluate investment choices. | Investment trace with NPV, IRR, risk, carbon, alternatives, and approval path. |
| Analyst | Prepare investment facts, sensitivities, and evidence. | Can explain model inputs and source evidence. |
| Supervisor | Monitor investment-case quality, missing evidence, and review bottlenecks. | Can see cases needing escalation or assumption review. |
| Function Leader / Capital Planning Lead | Rank investments, compare returns, and optimize capital envelope. | Can see project alternatives and capital constraints. |
| FB&T Leader | Understand capital productivity and portfolio implications. | Can orchestrate cross-function capital tradeoffs. |
| CFO | Decide where the next dollar should be invested. | Can see risk-adjusted value, cash, carbon, and strategic tradeoffs. |
Executive credibility scenarios
These are the scenarios BP can challenge live. The mission must show signal, context, evidence, policy, decision, action, replay, learning, and enterprise impact for each.
| Scenario | Inject | Expected runtime proof | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Competing investments | Multiple capital requests | NPV, risk, carbon, ranking, and funding recommendation are visible. | |
| Commodity price shift | Market outlook changes | Project economics and portfolio ranking update. | |
| Budget reduction | Capital envelope reduced | Reallocation scenarios and capital constraints are visible. |
12+ dimension BP credibility audit
| Dimension | Visible proof requirement | This mission's answer |
|---|---|---|
| Signal | Business event or market movement is visible and linked to a mission decision. | Project economics changed · Scenario event REF-TICK-50934 at 14:16 |
| Context | Entity, business unit, owner, system object, policy domain, and history are resolved. | Resolved through enterprise context graph: owner, system object, business unit, history, and policy domain. |
| Evidence | Source records, documents, approvals, and source-system snapshots are inspectable. | Evidence pack includes source system record, curated data snapshot, policy reference, and supporting document where applicable. |
| Policy | Authority, control, risk, accounting, tax, treasury, or investment policies are referenced. | Policy/runtime gate is evaluated before recommendation or action. |
| Decision | The mission produces a named decision object, not just a metric or chart. | Reallocate $500M to Gas & Low Carbon |
| Recommendation | Recommended response and alternatives are shown with impact. | Reallocate $500M to Gas & Low Carbon · confidence 86% · impact +0.18 ROIC |
| Human Override | Human approval, rejection, override, or escalation path is explicit. | Approval, rejection, override reason, and escalation owner are retained in replay. |
| Action | Action payload is traceable to workflow, system update, notification, hold, hedge, or approval. | Awaiting decision |
| Replay | Event, context, evidence, policy, recommendation, human judgment, action, and outcome can be replayed. | Replay captures signal, context, evidence, policy, agent output, human judgment, action, outcome, and learning. |
| Learning | Accepted/rejected outcomes are captured as future pattern memory. | Outcome becomes pattern memory after human decision and realized impact are known. |
| Business Impact | Financial, risk, cash, control, or value impact is quantified. | +0.18 ROIC |
| Enterprise Integration | Systems of record, data products, APIs, and future UDP context layer are named. | SAP S/4HANA · Project systems · Capital project management · Production systems · example: Reference capital model + project-system shape |
| Source Drill-down | Users can drill from decision to source transaction, document, or curated data product. | Source drill-down points to SOR/API record, Databricks/UDP data product, document, or market feed behind the decision. |
| Confidence | The decision carries confidence and uncertainty drivers. | Confidence is shown in decision formation and decomposed into data freshness, evidence completeness, policy clarity, and model uncertainty. |
| Alternatives | At least two alternative actions or scenarios are available. | Reallocate $500M to Gas & Low Carbon | Defer lower-return retail capex | Approve LNG expansion gate |
| Audit Trail | Every material step is retained with timestamp, actor/agent, evidence, and policy result. | Timestamped audit trail spans agent, human, policy, evidence, and action events. |
| Executive Narrative | The mission can produce an executive answer: what happened, why, what to do, and expected outcome. | Narrative answers what happened, why, recommended action, value, risk, and next owner. |
| Mission KPI | A mission-level KPI changes when the scenario changes. | Capital productivity |
| Readiness | Readiness or confidence updates when blockers, policies, or evidence status change. | Mission readiness/confidence updates when signals, evidence, policies, or blockers change. |
| Enterprise Impact | The mission shows enterprise-level consequence beyond one transaction. | Where should the next dollar be invested? |
Runtime architecture
SignalBusiness event, market movement, policy breach, or performance variance.
ContextEntity, asset, customer, project, policy, historical pattern, and owner resolution.
Evidence + PolicySource records, documents, controls, authority, and data-quality checks.
Decision + ActionAlternatives, confidence, financial impact, owner, action payload, and approval path.
Replay + LearningFull trace, outcome, accepted/rejected recommendation, and pattern memory.